Token profile
Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL)
An AI-narrative token where measurable adoption, real revenue, and supply discipline must separate signal from beta.
Overview
Virtuals Protocol · Base · AI and AI agents. Websites and governance links are included for direct source review.
| Metric | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Market capitalization | $650,000,000neutral | Illustrative seed Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
Overall score
25.7
/ 100
Needs deeper validation
Confidence
97%
Missing-data penalty
-0.0
Data-age penalty
-3.0
Penalties
1
Revenue and revenue growth
Rewards durable fee generation, growth, and quality while discounting incentive-dependent revenue.
6.5 / 15
Token-holder value capture
Measures whether protocol success translates into token demand, buybacks, burns, or revenue sharing.
3.0 / 15
Net buyback yield
Separates gross buyback narratives from net sellable supply after emissions, unlocks, and incentives.
7.6 / 15
User and volume growth
Rewards adoption, transaction activity, and share gains rather than isolated token marketing.
1.9 / 10
Utility
Measures whether the token is genuinely required for access, collateral, governance, or economic participation.
4.9 / 10
Supply quality
Rewards healthier float and lockups while penalizing aggressive unlocks and concentration.
4.1 / 10
Relative valuation
Compares valuation against peers on revenue, fees, TVL, and user monetization.
4.0 / 10
Liquidity and exitability
A high score requires enough volume and depth to enter or exit size without severe slippage.
6.6 / 10
Competitive moat
Captures network effects, switching costs, distribution, and structural advantages.
2.2 / 5
Applied penalties
- Buybacks smaller than emissions: -12 points. Gross token demand is offset by larger new sellable supply.
Four-quadrant tokenomics
Utility, locking, buybacks, and burns all require evidence, not just charts.
Utility: 4.9 / 10
Utility may exist, but the current proof level is limited.
Demand should be measured, not assumed from narrative momentum.
Locking and loyalty: 3.7 / 10
Loyalty is less proven than attention.
The research team should track retention over hype.
Buybacks: 2.2 / 10
Buybacks are not the core part of the current thesis.
The token case needs more than social traction.
Burns and scarcity: 2.9 / 10
Scarcity without demand is not enough.
Scarcity scores stay low until demand is real.
Net token flow
Gross demand and sellable supply remain separated across low, base, and high cases.
| Scenario | Gross buying pressure | New sellable supply | Net token flow | Net buyback yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| low | $2,400,000.00 | $21,600,000.00 | -$19,200,000.00 | -2.95% |
| base | $3,000,000.00 | $18,000,000.00 | -$15,000,000.00 | -2.31% |
| high | $3,600,000.00 | $14,400,000.00 | -$10,800,000.00 | -1.66% |
Protocol fundamentals
Measures whether the underlying protocol is succeeding.
| Metric | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Narrative strength | Highpositive | Seed research Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
Token fundamentals
Measures whether protocol success benefits the token itself.
| Metric | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Required token demand | Needs stronger proofcaution | Seed research Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
Supply analysis
Float, unlocks, concentration, and future sell pressure matter directly to token quality.
| Metric | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Supply quality | Mixedcaution | Seed research Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
Value capture, liquidity, and valuation
Direct cash-flow alignment is weighed against exitability and price paid.
| Metric | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Value capture | Early and not fully verifiedcaution | Seed research Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
| Metric | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Exitability rating | 5.4 / 10caution | Internal model Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
| Metric | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Relative valuation | Narrative premiumnegative | Internal model Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
Score history
Historical scores help show whether the thesis is strengthening or weakening.
Revenue versus price
Price and protocol usage should be inspected together.
Buybacks versus emissions
Gross positives can be cancelled by larger supply expansion.
Catalysts
Potential demand or thesis-improvement events.
| Catalyst | Date | Tone | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agent product release cadence | 2026-08-12 | positive | Needs to translate into measurable adoption, not just social attention. |
Risks
High-conviction research includes explicit invalidation and structural risk handling.
| Risk | Severity | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Narrative risk | high | AI narratives can outrun durable fundamentals quickly. |
Claims and evidence
Claims remain separate from verified data until independently confirmed.
No special seeded claims for this token yet.