Token profile
Jupiter (JUP)
High-visibility buyback story with meaningful ecosystem utility, but the net token-flow engine forces the buyback headline to be compared against actual sellable supply.
Overview
Jupiter · Solana · Decentralized exchanges. Websites and governance links are included for direct source review.
| Metric | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | Example seed value onlyneutral | Research methodology Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: low Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
| Market capitalization | $2,400,000,000neutral | Manual seed Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
| FDV | $7,200,000,000caution | Manual seed Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
| Primary data sources | Project docs, on-chain verification, provider refresh neededcaution | Research workflow Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
Overall score
25.6
/ 100
Needs deeper validation
Confidence
98%
Missing-data penalty
-0.0
Data-age penalty
-2.0
Penalties
2
Revenue and revenue growth
Rewards durable fee generation, growth, and quality while discounting incentive-dependent revenue.
7.6 / 15
Token-holder value capture
Measures whether protocol success translates into token demand, buybacks, burns, or revenue sharing.
4.9 / 15
Net buyback yield
Separates gross buyback narratives from net sellable supply after emissions, unlocks, and incentives.
7.8 / 15
User and volume growth
Rewards adoption, transaction activity, and share gains rather than isolated token marketing.
5.6 / 10
Utility
Measures whether the token is genuinely required for access, collateral, governance, or economic participation.
6.1 / 10
Supply quality
Rewards healthier float and lockups while penalizing aggressive unlocks and concentration.
3.4 / 10
Relative valuation
Compares valuation against peers on revenue, fees, TVL, and user monetization.
5.2 / 10
Liquidity and exitability
A high score requires enough volume and depth to enter or exit size without severe slippage.
7.4 / 10
Competitive moat
Captures network effects, switching costs, distribution, and structural advantages.
3.6 / 5
Applied penalties
- Large near-term unlock: -12 points. A large upcoming unlock can overwhelm buyback or organic demand.
- Buybacks smaller than emissions: -12 points. Gross token demand is offset by larger new sellable supply.
Four-quadrant tokenomics
Utility, locking, buybacks, and burns all require evidence, not just charts.
Utility: 6.1 / 10
Utility exists, but required demand remains weaker than the protocol footprint.
A large user base does not automatically create token demand.
Locking and loyalty: 4.4 / 10
Locking exists but does not eliminate distribution overhang.
Loyalty programs help less when supply pressure is large.
Buybacks: 5.5 / 10
Gross buybacks are visible, but the net number is the real test.
Buybacks reportedly exist, yet sellable supply can still dominate.
Burns and scarcity: 3.1 / 10
Scarcity is not the core pillar here.
Burns are not the main value-capture mechanism.
Net token flow
Gross demand and sellable supply remain separated across low, base, and high cases.
| Scenario | Gross buying pressure | New sellable supply | Net token flow | Net buyback yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| low | $19,200,000.00 | $78,000,000.00 | -$58,800,000.00 | -2.45% |
| base | $24,000,000.00 | $65,000,000.00 | -$41,000,000.00 | -1.71% |
| high | $28,800,000.00 | $52,000,000.00 | -$23,200,000.00 | -0.97% |
Protocol fundamentals
Measures whether the underlying protocol is succeeding.
| Metric | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Active users | Large retail footprintpositive | Seed research Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
| Volume | Significant routing and aggregation throughputpositive | Seed research Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
| Revenue | Meaningful but verification still neededpositive | Seed research Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
| Product count | Broad product surfacepositive | Seed research Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
Token fundamentals
Measures whether protocol success benefits the token itself.
| Metric | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Utility | Governance, ecosystem identity, future demand optionalityneutral | Seed research Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
| Buybacks | Headline positive, needs net-flow contextpositive | Source claim Open sourcesource-claim Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
| Required usage | Not strongly mandatorycaution | Seed research Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
| Burns | Limited structural roleneutral | Seed research Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
Supply analysis
Float, unlocks, concentration, and future sell pressure matter directly to token quality.
| Metric | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Float percentage | Low relative to FDVcaution | Manual seed Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
| Airdrops | Material selling pressure sourcenegative | Source claim Open sourcesource-claim Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
| Unlock schedule | High relevance to valuationcaution | Unlock queue Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
| Insider concentration | Requires refreshed holder analysiscaution | Research queue Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
Value capture, liquidity, and valuation
Direct cash-flow alignment is weighed against exitability and price paid.
| Metric | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Annual buybacks | $20,000,000positive | Source claim Open sourcesource-claim Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
| New sellable supply | $53,000,000negative | Source claim Open sourcesource-claim Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
| Net token flow | Negative in seed base casenegative | Internal model Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
| Metric | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Daily spot volume | $110,000,000positive | Seed example Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
| Slippage at $100,000 | 1.8%caution | Seed example Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
| Exitability rating | 6.1 / 10caution | Internal model Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
| Metric | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| FDV-to-revenue | Elevated relative to realized value capturecaution | Internal model Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
| Net buyback yield | Negative in base casenegative | Internal model Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
| Comparable projects | DEX governance token cohortneutral | Internal research Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
Score history
Historical scores help show whether the thesis is strengthening or weakening.
Revenue versus price
Price and protocol usage should be inspected together.
Buybacks versus emissions
Gross positives can be cancelled by larger supply expansion.
Catalysts
Potential demand or thesis-improvement events.
| Catalyst | Date | Tone | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Token utility proposal | 2026-08-20 | positive | Meaningful only if it creates durable recurring demand. |
| Airdrop overhang review | 2026-09-10 | caution | Net-flow optics improve only if new sellable supply falls faster than demand. |
Risks
High-conviction research includes explicit invalidation and structural risk handling.
| Risk | Severity | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Gross buyback narrative | high | Gross buybacks may look attractive while net token flow remains negative. |
| Low float / high FDV | high | Valuation can stay optically cheap on float while remaining expensive on fully diluted terms. |
Claims and evidence
Claims remain separate from verified data until independently confirmed.
| Category | Claim | Status | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buybacks | Jupiter reportedly bought about $20 million of tokens while distributing about $53 million through Jupuary. | partially-verified | medium |