Token profile
Aerodrome (AERO)
A high-beta DEX expression where protocol traction, emissions, and competitive durability all matter at once.
Overview
Aerodrome · Base · Decentralized exchanges. Websites and governance links are included for direct source review.
| Metric | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Market capitalization | $900,000,000neutral | Illustrative seed Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
Overall score
35.7
/ 100
Research incomplete
Confidence
98%
Missing-data penalty
-0.0
Data-age penalty
-2.0
Penalties
1
Revenue and revenue growth
Rewards durable fee generation, growth, and quality while discounting incentive-dependent revenue.
6.3 / 15
Token-holder value capture
Measures whether protocol success translates into token demand, buybacks, burns, or revenue sharing.
4.5 / 15
Net buyback yield
Separates gross buyback narratives from net sellable supply after emissions, unlocks, and incentives.
7.4 / 15
User and volume growth
Rewards adoption, transaction activity, and share gains rather than isolated token marketing.
2.2 / 10
Utility
Measures whether the token is genuinely required for access, collateral, governance, or economic participation.
6.8 / 10
Supply quality
Rewards healthier float and lockups while penalizing aggressive unlocks and concentration.
5.8 / 10
Relative valuation
Compares valuation against peers on revenue, fees, TVL, and user monetization.
6.1 / 10
Liquidity and exitability
A high score requires enough volume and depth to enter or exit size without severe slippage.
7.4 / 10
Competitive moat
Captures network effects, switching costs, distribution, and structural advantages.
3.2 / 5
Applied penalties
- Buybacks smaller than emissions: -12 points. Gross token demand is offset by larger new sellable supply.
Four-quadrant tokenomics
Utility, locking, buybacks, and burns all require evidence, not just charts.
Utility: 6.8 / 10
Utility is credible within the DEX ecosystem.
The question is not whether there is utility, but whether it dominates emissions.
Locking and loyalty: 6.2 / 10
Locking supports alignment but cannot erase dilution.
The system should score both loyalty and supply risk together.
Buybacks: 3.8 / 10
Buybacks are not yet the leading pillar.
Demand sinks lag the supply side in the base case.
Burns and scarcity: 3.2 / 10
Scarcity is not the main story.
The token case is more about emissions discipline than burns.
Net token flow
Gross demand and sellable supply remain separated across low, base, and high cases.
| Scenario | Gross buying pressure | New sellable supply | Net token flow | Net buyback yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| low | $8,000,000.00 | $43,200,000.00 | -$35,200,000.00 | -3.91% |
| base | $10,000,000.00 | $36,000,000.00 | -$26,000,000.00 | -2.89% |
| high | $12,000,000.00 | $28,800,000.00 | -$16,800,000.00 | -1.87% |
Protocol fundamentals
Measures whether the underlying protocol is succeeding.
| Metric | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| DEX share on Base | Strongpositive | Seed research Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
Token fundamentals
Measures whether protocol success benefits the token itself.
| Metric | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Value capture | Improving but emissions remain centralcaution | Seed research Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
Supply analysis
Float, unlocks, concentration, and future sell pressure matter directly to token quality.
| Metric | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Emission pressure | Meaningfulnegative | Seed research Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
Value capture, liquidity, and valuation
Direct cash-flow alignment is weighed against exitability and price paid.
| Metric | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Buyback path | Limited compared with emissionsnegative | Internal model Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
| Metric | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Exitability rating | 6.0 / 10caution | Internal model Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
| Metric | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Relative valuation | Interesting if emissions normalizeneutral | Internal model Open sourceexample-seed Confidence: medium Illustrative seed example. Not live market data; verify against current sources before acting. |
Score history
Historical scores help show whether the thesis is strengthening or weakening.
Revenue versus price
Price and protocol usage should be inspected together.
Buybacks versus emissions
Gross positives can be cancelled by larger supply expansion.
Catalysts
Potential demand or thesis-improvement events.
| Catalyst | Date | Tone | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base ecosystem acceleration | 2026-08-30 | positive | A macro tailwind if activity persists outside incentives. |
Risks
High-conviction research includes explicit invalidation and structural risk handling.
| Risk | Severity | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Emissions exceed demand | high | Token can underperform a successful DEX if emissions remain too large. |
Claims and evidence
Claims remain separate from verified data until independently confirmed.
No special seeded claims for this token yet.